The hurricane center gave it a 40% chance of development in the next two days and 80% chance of development in the next seven days, an increase from earlier Monday. If it were to spin up into tropical-storm strength, it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased its forecast odds a Caribbean system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm. As of its 7 p.m. EST tropical outlook, the NHC said an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea was associated with a tropical wave.

Tropical Storm Rafael is gradually weakening in the Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds now at 40 mph and is expected to become a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. Rafael is ...