Finally, the model seems to have performed relatively well in predicting the starts of the most recent recessions in the G7 economies. Chart 3 shows the model’s forecast for recessions that start in ...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which officially tracks recessions, takes more factors into account than GDP. Here's a closer look at what comprises a recession, how long they ...

Data from MacroMicro shows that the spread between yields on the U.S. 10-year note and the three-month bill are close to ...

Recessions on average lasted about four quarters, with substantial variation across episodes—the shortest was 2 quarters and the longest 13 quarters (see Chart 1). The typical decline in output from ...

Here is a chart of the LEI series with documented recessions as identified by the NBER. Note the peaks of the index preceding each of the recessions and the troughs occurring near the end of each ...

Double-dip recessions are especially painful for both ... in reference to its shape on an economic cycle chart. These charts usually depict a center horizontal line at zero that represents average ...

Previous D inversions were characterized by a renewed downtrend in the S and P 500 predicted us recessions marked by vertical shaded portions on the chart. The latest D inversion however ...